UkraineWorld discussed the matter with Roman Svitan, pilot instructor and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis
What we are witnessing is not a new round of offensive. This is the 10th year of Russia's aggression near Avdiivka, and six months of its offensive in Kupiansk. That is, there is a noticeable intensification in these directions.
The Russians are likely attempting to encircle Avdiivka and Kupiansk to negotiate with the military and political leadership of Ukraine to freeze the hostilities.
Russians have no idea how to cover the Kherson direction - there are stretches of 50 kilometers with no Russian soldiers, they have problems in Rabotyno, they are burning the last reserves that were there, and they have nothing to cover the Tokmak direction.
Russia is seeking a six-month break to reload, so they are throwing small reserves from the Urals into the area, hoping to replicate the precedent set by the Debaltseve boiler in 2014-2015, which they sold for the signing of the Minsk-2 agreements.
Each side applies pressure where it is most convenient. The Ukrainian side is putting pressure in Rabotyno and Bakhmut (because we are in positions of geographical height).
For example, Ukrainian defenders are now in the middle of expanding their foothold in Rabotyno. We've gone more than 10 kilometres deep. If we were not to expand the bridgehead now, i.e. move west and east (towards Novoprokopivka) instead of south, we would face flanking attacks, so our strategy is correct.
It is convenient for the Russians to put pressure on Avdiivka given their fortifications in Donetsk, a large agglomeration of Donetsk-Yasynuvata-Makiyivka, which are nearby. Additionally, they're piling on the pressure on the surrounding area of Kupyansk because the Russian border is a mere 20 kilometres away.
The situation is really difficult, but it can be fixed.
Avdiivka is buried in concrete - it's a heavily fortified concrete area - and there's the Koksokhim Avdiivka industrial enterprise, which is a thousand-tonne concrete plant in and of itself, essentially a smaller version of Azovstal.
The Russians are attempting to surround it, but, of course, we won't let them do so. The Russians will be stopped primarily by minefields and artillery. Furthermore, there are two rivers running through Kupyansk, the Oskil and the Siverskyi Donets.
The Oskil, Zherebetsk and Krasne rivers flow into the Siverskyi Donets. That is, it is very difficult to set up offensive operations and more of a simple nature to defend. That's why we need to increase our ammunition supply.
Cluster munitions are especially important.
Another munition that would be incredibly useful is the M-26 unguided rocket with a range of 30 km.
There are tens of thousands of these in Europe. One volley of 12 rockets covers an area of 25,000 m2 with M26 cluster munitions.
In 1.5-2 weeks, Russia's army troops near Avdiivka will run out of steam and then the Ukrainian army may launch a counterattack and reach the DAP, the Donetsk airport, and enter Donetsk in the Putylov district.
In Kherson direction, there is a possibility of forcing the Dnipro River before the cold weather. If this is done, the Russians would have no countermeasures, as they have already blown up the dam. However, the feasibility of this is dependent on the available resources.
Right now, the Russians are suffering heavy losses in armour, because until the rains start, they are moving with motorised infantry units. Last year, the Wagner group used this same strategy of live human waves.
This was due to the fact that the rains had already begun and there was 80 cm of soil that simply sucked them up. And when the rains start this year, the Russians will do the same, sending rifle and infantry units.
