Why Hasn’t Ukraine Broken?

February 12, 2026
The fundamental reason Ukraine has not broken under the full-scale invasion lies in its civil society strength.
article-photo
Photo credit: 93-тя окрема механізована бригада «Холодний Яр»

Unlike rigid, vertical structures that are prone to shattering under intense pressure, Ukrainian society functions as a flexible, horizontal network.

In this article we use the recent analytical data from the OPORA Civil Network and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), alongside longitudinal findings from Chatham House and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), to provide a clear roadmap of how this resilience is maintained through low polarization and high civic integration.

The Horizontal Model of Power and Trust

One of the most profound reasons Ukrainian society has remained functional is its inherent decentralization. While the Russian "vertical of power" is fragile and vulnerable to collapse if the central leadership is compromised, Ukrainian society functions more on a horizontal level; if one part is severed, the others continue to operate.

Firstly, the volunteer ecosystem is a pillar of national survival. Research from Chatham House in 2025 indicates that approximately 25-30% of the population is actively engaged in civic activity.

In many frontline areas, civil society filled critical gaps in medical supplies, emergency evacuations, and drone procurement. For instance, the East SOS network alone evacuated 46,000 people since 2022, and the Save Ukraine group has moved over 160,000 evacuees since 2014. Civilians also weaponized technology for resistance.

The so-called “IT Army of Ukraine” mobilized hundreds of thousands of volunteer hackers to conduct over 2,000 cyber-operations against Russian targets within months. Grassroots OSINT groups, InformNapalm among the examples, published thousands of investigations on enemy military units. Crowdsourced platforms, like the “Molfar” group, quickly matched donors to frontline units’ needs.

Secondly, resilience is further fueled by the "institute of reputation." In Ukraine, trust is relational rather than purely institutional. KIIS data through 2025 reveals that while trust in central bureaucracy remains complex, trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) and volunteer organizations has consistently remained above 80%.

This reputation-based trust allows for the rapid mobilization of resources, such as the collection of millions of dollars through private transfers to strangers. In practical terms, high-profile foundations exemplify this effort: the “Come Back Alive” military charity raised over UAH 12 billion (~$300 million) since 2022 to supply drones and equipment, while other NGOs like the Serhiy Prytula Foundation raised $165 million for satellites and arms. Hundreds of smaller groups (local charities, church missions, student volunteers, etc.) also proliferated.

Institutional Adaptability

A 2025 survey of over 180 local governments found that, contrary to the trend in wars of sidelining civilians, many Ukrainian municipalities actively involved community groups in crisis management.

Mayors engaged volunteer associations and local firms in joint planning for evacuation, shelter, and public services. In practice, towns held daily coordination meetings with civil society actors and volunteers. Thus we can conclude that such “collaborative crisis governance” has enhanced emergency preparedness and even bolstered the democratic legitimacy of local authorities under wartime conditions.

Surveyed officials report that local councils keep vital services running (such as debris removal, road repairs, shelter management) even in heavily shelled areas. So to prevent breakdown of daily routine society together with authorities even in such harsh conditions.

Low Affective Polarization

A primary internal threat to any nation at war is affective polarization - the emotional and social distancing between different demographic groups. If Ukrainians were to fragment based on their varying wartime experiences, the country could collapse from within. However, the study reveals a surprising level of cohesion.

Ukrainian society maintains a predominantly neutral attitude toward fellow citizens, regardless of individual characteristics such as language or status as internally displaced persons. This neutrality acts as a shield, preventing the "othering" of neighbors during times of high stress.

Social consensus in Ukraine is built around specific "red lines" of belonging. Positive perception is largely tied to service in the Army and the rejection of Russian cultural influence.

Conversely, the study identified that the only "critical combination" triggering strong negative social reactions is the pairing of service evasion with the continued consumption of Russian media.

Furthermore, linguistic polarization remains moderate, with no evidence of regional fractures. Instead, social shifts now occur synchronously across the entire country, suggesting a unified national consciousness.

Wartime Social Contract?

Ukraine’s resilience is also anchored in a sophisticated digital infrastructure that prevented the breaking ties of society during mass displacement. The Diia ecosystem digitized the social contract, ensuring that even if a citizen’s physical home or local administrative building was destroyed, their legal identity and access to state benefits remained intact. This technological continuity has been vital in preventing the marginalization of vulnerable groups.

Psychologically, this digital and social connectivity fosters a "subjective feeling of being the majority." OPORA/KSE research shows that between 64% and 77% of Ukrainians feel they are part of the majority on key issues like mobilization and energy management. This perception serves as a psychological bulwark against foreign strategies of demoralization and isolation. By the beginning of 2026, the glue that holds the nation together has transitioned from a focus on a single leader to a shared set of values and collective traumas. Data indicates that faith in a better future (53%), the sense of loss of a "normal" life (40%), and patriotic feelings (38%) are the primary drivers of this unified survival.

Ultimately, the "unbreakable" logic of Ukraine is found in the horizontal ties connecting the soldier, the software engineer, the local mayor, and the volunteer. Ukrainian society has proven it can function effectively without a perfect center. It is a distributed network that instinctively reroutes resources wherever they are needed most.

Daria Synhaievska
Analyst at UkraineWorld