The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a new phase. Russia has adapted to the conditions of war and is strengthening its military capabilities while draining Ukraine's resources.
Against this backdrop, Ukraine's partners are working on security guarantees for the country. They aim to build a reliable framework for enhancing Ukraine's defence capabilities, ensuring Ukrainian and, by extension, European security.
Thus, the EU is working on the project of the long-term commitments for Ukraine in the security and defence sectors - a framework paper that, among other things, includes the exchange of intelligence data, cooperation in the defence industry sphere, training of the Ukrainian military, assistance in the implementation of European integration reforms, etc.
The document should become an addition to Ukraine's bilateral agreements on security guarantees with individual EU member states. Furthermore, Ukraine is in talks with the G7 countries about military and economic aid agreements.
But what should Ukraine's security guarantees look like, so that they are more than just a promise and become an effective tool? UkraineWorld asked Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies.
A full guarantee of Ukraine's security is its membership in NATO.
Since this option is unrealistic as of now, an initiative to build security guarantees for Ukraine was put forward to ensure Ukraine's stability and ability to fight aggression until it acquires the desired membership.
The idea of security guarantees should consist of transforming Ukraine into a powerful state that is superior to the enemy, making further aggression inconceivable.
The guarantors' main component should be a clear definition of material and technological assistance, as well as the integration of their defence industry with the Ukrainian one.
The model of security guarantees for Israel is exemplary in this context. This is exactly the format that would be acceptable for Ukraine.
Not only did Israel get $3 billion in help from the United States, but it also shared common military developments. The outcomes of this collaboration have been employed in both Israel and the United States. A good example is the "Arrow" missile defence system.
Using such a model, Ukraine would become not only a developer of advanced weaponry together with the leading countries, but also a supplier.
Technological advancement and production would aid Ukraine's economic progress. And a robust economy is one of the things that contribute to increased security.
Obtaining military technology from its partners is a crucial component of security guarantees for Ukraine. E.g., to effectively repel Russian aggression Ukraine critically needs long-range missiles, which neither the USA nor Germany are willing to hand over.
Ukraine independently developed its missile program and has the production capacity. Obtaining the necessary technology from partners would allow Ukraine to manufacture such missiles on its own.
Similarly, it might collaborate with technologies to develop powerful operational-tactical drones, cutting-edge air defence systems, modern munitions, etc.
In addition to access to technology, joint military-technical production plays an important role in ensuring Ukraine's security.
And Ukraine is already implementing joint projects that might serve as the foundation of these guarantees. Currently, we have interim solutions that should be transformed into a system solution enshrined in agreements on security guarantees.
So, what does Ukraine have now? For example, an agreement was reached with the USA on the exchange of technologies and the start of joint production.
At the very least, there are two projects: the production of 155-mm ammunition in Ukraine and the further implementation of the FrankenSAM air defence system project.
Western countries appear to want to start with simpler technology and work their way up to more complex ones. E.g., the German Rheinmetall’s statements illustrate this point.
It has recently announced the joint manufacturing of light armoured vehicles, such as the Fuchs armored personnel carrier. The company may then offer joint production of tanks. Only then we might move on to the newest systems like Skynex.
The form of the security guarantees is no less important than their content. They must be legally established with fixed obligations and approved by the parliaments of the guarantor countries
, so that, in the event of a change of power or political course in one or another country, the guarantees provided continue to be honoured.
For example, an agreement on security guarantees by France might be prepared for signing by the end of the year. However, several details make the format unsuitable for Ukraine.
First, France does not clearly define certain obligations and figures regarding the provision of support. Secondly, the agreement is unlikely to be adopted by parliament, which automatically converts it into a declaration of intent. The examples of power shifts in Slovakia and the Netherlands demonstrate how military aid policy can shift dramatically.
Providing security guarantees to Ukraine is beneficial to the guarantors themselves.
Ukraine has considerable experience and a material base for the development and production of weapons.
In addition, it works on the world arms market. Therefore, the joint development of the defence industry would not be just an investment in the development of Ukraine's capacities, but a mutually beneficial cooperation.
In fact, Ukraine is defending NATO's eastern flank and pays for it with the blood of its people. Therefore, providing security guarantees to Ukraine is, above all, a guarantee of their security for European countries.
This is important given Russia's aggressive intentions towards the Baltic states or Eastern Europe. According to the statements of Polish special services, Russia will be ready to attack NATO countries in three years. The Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies estimates this period as two to two and a half years.
When it comes to security guarantees, no one wants Europeans defending Ukraine with weapons in their hands. It is about allowing Ukraine the option to defend itself, and by doing so, Ukraine will effectively defend Europe.
