Ukraine’s Resistance to Energy Attacks: Now and in the Future

January 19, 2023
UkraineWorld spoke to Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director at the Energy Industry Research Center.

Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis:

On Europe's electricity exports to Ukraine

  • This is ongoing in small volumes and currently is not having any noticeable effects. The future prospects of this project depend on many factors, primarily money. Electricity on the European market is 2.5 times more expensive than on the Ukrainian one. Accordingly, the question of cost is key.

On the record low price of Russian oil per barrel

  • They have no one to sell to. Russia is facing the struggle of being pushed out of the European market with sanctions, and it is trying to win new markets. But in these new markets, such as China and India, there are already other established suppliers.

On postwar reconstruction plans for the energy system

  • The reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy system will be guided by the principles of renewablity, carbon neutrality, and, most likely, restoring export potential. But there is a significant problem - the Ukrainian electricity market.
  • Tariffs for the population are 3-3.5 times lower than the market rate. Accordingly, the market is artificially limited. As a result, private investors will not get into the Ukrainian energy industry until the reform of the electricity market is completed and until investors are confident they can earn a return on their investments.

On the duration of reconstruction

  • It will be possible to restore regular energy supply for round-the-clock use within 3-4 months, and to rebuild the system in total within 2 years.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director at the Energy Industry Research Center

This material was prepared with financial support from the International Renaissance Foundation.

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