What to Expect on the Battlefield in the Next Six Months?

Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis:

1. On how Ukrainian kamikaze sea drones are changing the history of warfare

• Ukraine's Magura V5 is only a small part of the country's military innovation that it has chosen to disclose. During the IDEF 2023 defense exhibition, the Turkish defense company METEKSAN presented its own remote-controlled kamikaze boats, so we have clearly already inspired others.
• The Magura V5 is overall more effective than anti-ship missiles and torpedoes. Compared to an anti-ship missile, such as Harpoon, which has a range of up to 200 km, our kamikaze boat has demonstrated its ability to cover a distance of 700 km by hitting the Russian warship Olenegirsky Gornyak near Novorossiysk. For their part, torpedoes are principally designed to hit targets below the waterline, but a kamikaze boat is more compact.
• The Ministry of Defence has been building up its capabilities to produce robotic systems for evacuating the wounded and delivering supplies to the frontline. Currently, a remote-controlled robotic stretcher is being developed. The idea behind the project to transport wounded defenders from trenches to stabilization points where first aid is provided. Given that the use of robotics has just started and the Ministry of Defence has already stated that 10,000 robotic systems are needed, one can only imagine how urgent the demand for these systems is.
• Ukraine is not only skilfully developing innovative weapons, but also improving the ones in its stockpiles. The Russians have shown footage of a missile visually similar to the 5V27 missile for the S-200 systems hitting targets. But given that this is a 10 meter-long monster missile, which is larger than the Iskander, the Russians could have been showing an air-launched X31 missile, so it's a very slippery slope.
• The assumption that Ukraine could have used the S-200 for the strikes has a key weakness. Namely, this missile is fired from a stationary launcher, unlike the S-125 systems, and is visible from a satellite. That is why Russia uses its S-300s, which are mounted on a mobile chassis that can be quickly moved from one position to another. Only 2 countries could have S-200 systems left - Bulgaria, with approximately 8 units, and Poland, with 3, as of early 2023. In Bulgaria, S-200s form the backbone of their air defenses, while Poland has managed to replace its S-200s with Patriots, but the delivery of this sort of system to Ukraine would not have gone unnoticed.
• The most striking example of the adaptation of the Soviet system to modern conditions lies on the surface. The Tu-141 Strizh, a reusable tactical reconnaissance UAV manufactured at the Kharkiv Aircraft Plant, has a range of 1,000 km and was originally intended for reconnaissance. After the collapse of the USSR, they were used for target practice, due to their resemblance to cruise missiles, to train our air defense forces. Our military came up with the idea that if the Tu-141 resembled a cruise missile, why not turn it into something functionally similar. For example, in December 2022, these drones were used to strike the Engels and Dyagilevo strategic airbases. Missing such a radar-visible target was acutely embarrassing for the Russians, because after that moment, Russian strategic aviation began to train for rapidly repairing their airbases, as they had no countermeasures in place.

2. On the possibility of using laser weapons in this war

• Even before Lockheed Martin, the Chinese made a laser system that was supposed to burn up enemy kamikaze drones. And the irony is that Saudi Arabia bought this system and it effectively destroyed the Shahed 136 drone. But this system is first of all very expensive, and secondly, Ukraine needs small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery more than laser weapons.

3. On Bild forecasts that Russia can continue the war in Ukraine for another 2-3 years.

• At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russians had 21,000 artillery systems, including World War II models, such as the D1 howitzers, which were transferred to Wagner. In addition to the 2,000 tanks left in Russia, they have another 5,000 tanks in storage bases. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroying Russian tanks twice as fast as Russia is producing them. Russia still has a couple hundred combat-capable aircraft and helicopters. So, unfortunately, the Russians have resources to fight with.
• At the same time, Bild’s estimates are made not only for the benefit of their readers, but also for German defense planning. As of now, the Bundeswehr has 60,000 soldiers, no combat-ready helicopters, only 200 combat-ready tanks, and less than 100 combat-ready Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery systems.

4. On whether Russia is able to launch another major offensive by increasing its number of soldiers to 3 million

• The Russian General Staff can count on a reserve force of 3 million. This year, they have the task of mobilzing about 500,000 people to prepare for a strategic offensive in the winter, after our counter-offensive achieves some goals. If we recall the previous partial mobilization, 300,000 occupiers looked so powerful that there were estimates that the Russians would try to repeat a counter-offensive from several directions. In the end, the mobilized forces were limited to defense of Bakhmut, with catastrophic Russian losses, the defense of the Kupyansk-Lyman sector, and senseless attacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
• Now the number of Russian troops amounts to 550,000. 100,000 of them are trying to advance on the Kupyansk/Lyman sector and have not achieved any results in a month of fighting. Another 150,000 are concentrated in the south, which is slowing down our progress, but on the other hand, there are 4 Russian armies that were planned as an offensive formation.

5. On Russia’s intentions to break through the Suwalki corridor.

• If Wagner suddenly gets armored vehicles from the Belarusian army in addition to artillery in their arsenal, it will be a red flag that they are preparing for military action. So far, we can say that there is a threat of this, but they are not combat-ready.