Russia's Military Escalation Against Ukraine: LIVE UPDATES

11 May, key updates:

• Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran says that although Russia is withdrawing its troops, there is still a possibility of a Russian invasion from the side of Belarus or military aggression carried out via Belarusian territory, UNIAN reports.

5 May, key updates of the past few days:

• While meeting on the margins of G7 ministerial meeting, the EU HR/VP Josep Borrell and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed Russia’s aggressive behavior. The issue of Russia’s build-up along Ukrainian borders and in the illegally annexed Crimea was also in the spotlight of the meeting.
• The USA is ready to respond to “unreasonable and aggressive” actions by Russia, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. He also argued that Washington is watching very closely Moscow’s actions and the course it has embarked on.
• The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urges allies to force Russia to implement its international obligations. As he wrote in his Twitter, there is a need to work together to “call out Russia’s behavior, hold Russia accountable for its actions, and press Moscow to adhere to its international commitments and obligations.”

29 April, 18:01 - There is no threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but such a threat still exists, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiiev said.

29 April, 15:06 - Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, is set to visit Ukraine next week. As Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, explained, during the meeting, the US support for Ukraine’s reforms, as well as security, economy and energy issues will be discussed.

29 April, 13:20 - According to Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, Russia has only partially withdrawn its troops from Ukrainian border. “There are more Russian forces along Ukrainian border than it has ever been after 2014 when Russia really invaded Ukraine,” Blinken stressed.

29 April, 10:30 - In its yesterdays’ resolution, the European Parliament called to made it clear for Russia what consequences would Moscow face if it invaded Ukraine amid its military build-up along country’s borders. If this becomes a reality, MEPs urges to urgently exclude Russia from SWIFT payment system, stop all oil and gas imports from Russia, freeze assets of and impose entry ban on Russia’s financial tycoons linked to the authorities.

28 April, key updates:

• Yesterday, the occupiers violated the ceasefire in Donbas 11 times, one Ukrainian soldier has been injured, UNIAN informs.
• Head of the State Border Service of Ukraine Serhiy Deyneko told that Russia has begun a partial withdrawal of troops from the occupied Crimea, but the withdrawal of Russian troops from the eastern border of Ukraine in the Voronezh region is not observed.
• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky believes that the Vatican could be an optimal place for his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, UKINFORM reports.
• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky wants upgrade several clauses of the Minsk Agreements and involve new countries in Donbas talks, UNIAN informs.
• German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas welcomed Russia's withdrawal of troops from the border of Ukraine and called for the removal of restrictions in the Black Sea, Deutsche Welle reports.
• Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania has adopted a resolution condemning Russia's provocative actions near the border with Ukraine, UNIAN reports.
• Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating the participation of about 260 foreign nationals from 32 countries in hostilities in Crimea and Donbas, UNIAN informs.
• Ambassador of Germany to Ukraine Anka Feldhuzen believes that the military threat to Ukraine from Russia will remain at least until the military exercises "West-2021" planned for the autumn, despite the Kremlin's statements about the withdrawal of troops.

27 April, key updates:

• French President Emmanuel Macron urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to “commit in good faith and in a sustainable way toward reducing tensions with Ukraine", - France 24 reported.
• The US ship began its north bound straits transit into the Black Sea to work with NATO allies and partners,“to strengthen regional maritime security, combined readiness, and naval capability”, as part of their collaboration in the Aegean Sea.
• Russia’s Black Sea fleet launched naval combat exercises on Tuesday as a U.S. coastguard vessel headed to the region at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West,- Reuters reports.- Russia’s Black Sea fleet said on Tuesday its Moskva cruiser would hold live-fire drills with other ships and military helicopters. Read more here.
• Over the past day, April 26, the armed formations of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire in the Joint Forces Operation area in eastern Ukraine nine times, -Ukrinform reports. Meanwhile, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM)recorded 382 ceasefire violations in Donetsk Oblast and nine in Luhansk Oblast between the evenings of 23 and 25 April.
• Ukraine expels Russian consul in Odesa. A consul of the Russian Consulate General in Odesa has been declared persona non grata and must leave Ukraine by April 30, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported.
• The US has provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with almost 8 million dollars of new security assistance, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine reported.
• Direct negotiations with the leaders of the Russia-controlled separatists are a red line that Ukraine will not cross, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

26 April, key updates:

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, instructed the head of his office, Andriy Yermak, to negotiate with Russian representatives about a possible meeting with President Vladimir Putin, UKRINFORM reports. "It seems to me that everything is going towards the fact that this meeting will take place," Zelenskyy added.
• On April 25, there were 12 violations of the ceasefire in Donbas. Joint Forces Operations reports, fortunately, the Ukrainian army on this day didn't suffer military losses.
• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to involve the United States, Great Britain and Canada into Normandy format, European Pravda reports referring to Zelenskyy’s recent interview for the Financial Times.
• Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, convenes an emergency meeting of the Visegrad Group countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary) due to Russia's aggressive actions. "The meeting will focus on Russian acts of sabotage in the Czech Republic, Russia's escalation of the situation in Ukraine and Belarus," First Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk informs on Twitter.

25 April, key updates:

• On April 24, there were 9 violations of the ceasefire in Donbas, but, fortunately, without any losses of the Ukrainian military, Joint Forces Operation reports.
• Ukraine asked Germany to supply defense weapons for the protection of its territories due to rising tensions on the border with Russia, Deutsche Welle informs. However, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS), German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas opposes the provision of arms to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany Andrij Melnyk wrote on his page in Twitter that Norbert Röttgen, a member of the CDU Presidium, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German Bundestag, supported the idea of providing Ukraine with weapons of defense.
• Vice-Marshal of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland Malgorzata Gosewska after visiting Ukraine stated that Russia wouldn't dare to attack Ukraine in case of decisive reaction of the USA and countries of the Western Europe, UKRINFORM reports. She emphasized that if Russia sees weakness, it will move on.
• Germany's Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock emphasized the necessity to increase pressure on Russia to ensure compliance with the Minsk agreements, Ukrinform writes. She also critisized the Nord Stream 2 project.
• Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor believes that Russia will not attack Ukraine because it will cause a large number of sanctions.
• Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby stated that it's too early to evaluate the statements of the Russian side on the completion of exercises and the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine. He also added that the USA is monitoring this process very carefully.
• Meanwhile, the Administration of US President Joe Biden believes that sanctions against Russia are working, and they have led to a reduction in tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

24 April, 20:06 - Commenting on the announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian borders, Andriy Yermak, the head of Presidential Office, pointed at the tremendous support Ukraine is enjoying in this context. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s work and support by the Western partners have resulted in such a decision by Kremlin, Yermak stressed.

24 April, 17:25 - As from today, 24 April, Russia partially closes access for international vessels to three districts of the Black Sea near illegally annexed Crimea. These restrictions will be in place until 31 October. There is no explanation from Russia’s Defense Ministry on the motives of such a decision.

24 April, 13:50 - Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky will not go to Moscow to hold Donbas peace talks with Vladimir Putin, Leonid Kravchuk, the head of Ukrainian delegation in the Trilateral Contact Group, said while commenting Russia’s President invitation to his Ukraine’s counterpart. Only third, neutral, country can host the possible negotiations between two leaders, Kravchuk added.

24 April, 10:05 - Despite the withdrawal of Russian military forces announced by Moscow, the USA is not in a hurry to assess such a step as the one that may have an impact on the decrease of troops’ build-up along Ukrainian borders. According to John Kirby, a representative of the US Department of Defense, Washington keeps on watching closely the Russian troops’ movement, thus it is still too early to predict further developments.

23 April key updates:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky's offer to meet in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, as part of the peace talks, a piece of news from UNIAN reads. In his turn, Putin stated: "What do we want to discuss at this meeting? If we are talking about discussing the problems of Donbas, then, first of all, the Ukrainian leaders should meet with heads of the 'republics,' and only then discuss problems with representatives of third countries. If we are talking about bilateral relations, then we will receive the president of Ukraine in Moscow at any time convenient for him".
• Russia has announced the beginning of bringing back its troops that have participated in drills in the occupied Crimea to their permanent locations, NV.UA reports.
• Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) has recently informed that Russia will keep its all military equipment in a dislocated field camp Pahonovo near Voronezh, regardles of withdrawal of personel from Ukrainian border, NV.UA writes.
• According to Russia's Defense Minister, more than 20 ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet have returned to their bases upon completion of maneuvers in Crimea, Interhax-Ukraine says.

22 April, 18:34 - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a statement in which he welcomed the decrease in the number of Russian troops along Ukraine's border that "proportionally contributed to the decerase in tensions." "Ukraine is on its guard but welcomes any steps aimed at the decrease of military presence and deescalation in Donbas. Ukraine wants peace. Thank you to our interntational partners for support," he wrote.

22 April, 15:05 - Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of the "inspection" in the country's Southern and Western military districts, given that all the "goals set" had been achieved. Against this backdrop, Shoigu ordered that troops that had previously been amassed in the indicated regions return to their permanent locations.

22 April, 12:53 - The OSCE SMM has identified 12 Grad rocket launchers in the occupied part of Donbas, Radio Svoboda reports. Even though they are located beyond the line of armed forces' disengagement, their range is at least twice as big as their distance from the contact line envisaged by the rules of such disengagement. This means that they still can target Ukraine's territory.

22 April, 12:42 - According to the latest reports from the battlefield, another Ukrainian soldier was killed this morning following a recent shellfire.

22 April, 12:06 - Oleksiy Arestovych, speaker of Ukraine's Delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group, recently shared his forecast that escalation along Ukraine's eastern and southern borderst would cease after the next meeting of the TCG scheduled to take place on 28 April.

21 April, 19:47 - Volodymyr Zelensky signed the bill allowing to draft reservists without annoucement of mobilization into law.

21 April, 14:01 - Despite the numerous fears (for instance, that he would recognize "independence" of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR"), Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, did not specifically mention any Donbas-related issues during his annual adress to the country's parliament.

21 April, 12:00 - Key updates of the past few days:

• On 20 April Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenksy published a video adress dedicated to the situation along the country's eastern border. Among other things, he stated that Ukraine did not seek war but was fully prepared to it. He also offered his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to meet "in any place in Donbas where the war is ongoing."
• According to Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, the number of Russian troops along Ukraine's eastern border is around 120 000 people. The estimates recently cited by Josep Borrell, EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, go even further, totalling at around 150 000.
• The Wall Street Journal has recently come forward with a piece containing satellite imagery of Russia's military buildup in the occupied Crimean peninsula. According to the material, in the last three weeks Russia has relocated a significant number of combat aircraft there. As of now, the peninsula is packed with airborne troops, vehicle and armoured units, combat helicopters, reconnaissance UASs, electronic warfare systems and a field hospital.

UkraineWorld has recently produced a number of materials dedicated to the ongoing escalation along Ukraine's eastern and southern borders. They can serve as a good starting point to bring you up to speed with the pending developments before you proceed to our regular detailed updates.

You are welcome to check out our video summarizing developments of the past few weeks:

Another video dedicated to Russian propaganda against the backdrop of the escalation:

As well as an online discussion we recently held to analyze possible scenarios of developments: