Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region stunned people everywhere. On August 6, reports emerged that an unconfirmed Ukrainian incursion in the Russia's Kursk region began. Yet, it wasn't until August 12 that the Ukrainian Army's commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syskyi, confirmed the offensive as a Ukrainian operation.
According to the latest reports, Ukraine controls 1,263 square kilometres and 93 settlements in the region.
What is the purpose of these operations? And what strategy and tactics are at the basis of this operation? UkraineWorld interviewed Mykhailo Samus, a military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, to find out more.
Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region is an unconventional asymmetric operation aimed at causing managerial chaos in the Kremlin, resulting in instability.
The Russian command is now wondering where the next Ukrainian assault will take place or what will be the subsequent actions—the Kursk operation may not be the only Ukrainian offensive.
Since October of last year, Russia has been conducting offensive operations in the Donbas region. In this context, many experts believe that Ukraine ought to avoid offensive actions in 2024 and instead focus on strategic defence.
However, supporters of a different hypothesis argued that Ukraine has to launch unconventional asymmetric operations in 2024 in order to put itself in a stronger position in 2025, which may represent the most crucial year in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
This is due not only to the upcoming elections in the US but also to Russia's dwindling resources, something Russia bears in mind. That is why Ukraine must enter 2025 with the strategic initiative. And the Kursk operation fits into this greater concept.
The Russian command and military-political leadership seem to have decided to continue the offensive in Donbas while attempting to neutralize the threat in the Kursk region with minimal units. This is, frankly speaking, the worst possible move for Russia.
By delving deeper into Donbas, the Russians will find it extremely challenging to withdraw reserves if necessary and halt the advance of Ukrainian troops with minimal forces when Ukraine strikes in multiple directions.
Ukrainian troops continue to form advantageous defensive positions in the Kursk region, thanks in part to these Russian tactics. This is creating the conditions needed to gain a foothold in this territory and utilizing it at various levels.
Strategically, this territory will allow Ukraine to grab the initiative and operate under more favourable conditions,
including in any future negotiations - whether with the new President of the United States, India's Prime Minister Modi in the coming days, or hypothetical indirect talks with Russia.
This is a truly strategic move that will allow Ukraine to negotiate a position of greater strength than if it had only focused on defensive posturing.
At the operational level, this is an operation designed to force the Russians to reposition their reserves and manoeuvre differently than if they were only engaged in offensive rather than defensive operations.
They are currently attempting to move their reserves minimally, but as the Ukrainian operation progresses, they will be forced to withdraw forces from other directions, particularly southern Ukraine. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces can use this to perform other manoeuvres.
At the tactical level, the Ukrainian army continues to consolidate its presence in the Kursk region by making use of the terrain's geographical features. The rivers Seym, Psel, and Sudzha, in particular, serve as the foundation for current Ukrainian manoeuvres, allowing forces to be built up in this territory.
Russia is currently deceiving itself, claiming that nothing that dreadful has happened. They are attempting to push the impression that Ukrainian operations are reckless and temporary and that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from Russian-held territories because it is unable to sustain the advances.
However, this is an incorrect way of thinking. Meanwhile, Ukraine can move forward with its plans. In terms of territories, the depth and width of the advance are not the primary objectives of these operations.
Their goal is to complete the specific tasks of these operations
, which are not being disclosed. Based on how Ukrainian troops are using the rivers mentioned above, it is clear that they intend to firmly establish their presence.
The geographical features of the terrain are being used to increase the security of the flanks against potential Russian attacks. In such operations, flanks are critical.
In offensive operations, the flanks must be protected by the same troops that are advancing. However, by relying on geographical features like rivers, Ukrainian forces can devote fewer resources to securing their flanks.
If Russia's tactics remain unchanged, Ukraine might launch operations to establish a sanitary corridor in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions.
So, by cutting off Russian logistics and communications in the Belgorod region, for example, it would help reduce the threat of Kharkiv coming under constant shelling and possible direct attacks.
That is, if Russia continues to advance in the Donetsk Oblast while pretending that nothing serious is happening on its territory, it would be logical for Ukraine to expand the control zone as much as possible to secure the Ukrainian territories
.
