Russia Turns Quantity into Power. Ukraine and Its Allies Must Outthink, not Outspend

Defending against it is not a question of how much you spend but how smart you do it.

Russia uses massive attacks with cheap drones, such as the Shahed-136, the production of which grows rapidly.

According to CNN estimates based on data from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the second half of 2024, the number of attacks by Russian drones increased sharply: 

• in May - 400 attacks, 
• in November - 2,400. 
• in December, at least 1,700.

Russia has significantly accelerated the production of Shahed-136 attack drones. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimates that a plant in Tatarstan has produced 6,000 drones about a year ahead of schedule.

By the end of 2024, Russia had reached a production rate of up to 2000 Shahed-136s per month, as confirmed by an analysis of the serial numbers of downed drones conducted by Defense Express. In the first half of 2024, these figures did not exceed 1,000 units per month.

This rate of production indicates a massive saturation of Russian troops with cheap attack drones, which poses a serious threat to Ukraine. Without effective mass countermeasures, this factor could wear down the Ukrainian air defence system.

To defend effectively means to take a balanced approach:

• Modern high-precision systems to destroy key threats (missiles, aircraft, command centres).
• A large number of low-cost countermeasures - for the mass destruction of drones, artillery and other available enemy assets.
• Reasonable allocation of resources - relying solely on expensive technologies will weaken the defence, while a combination of high-precision and mass-produced assets will make it effective.

If the approach is not changed, Russia will continue to deplete Ukraine's defence with massive attacks using cheap weapons.  This is not a matter of money - it is a matter of strategic thinking and proper resource allocation.