The announcement of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine sparked heated debate in the media. It was often presented as an unexpected blow to Ukraine's defence capabilities, but experts who closely monitor the situation note that such risks were already evident in 2023.
We invited three experts to analyse this topic:
They shared their views on the consequences of the termination of US military assistance, the risks for Ukraine and possible alternatives.
US military aid suspension: no surprise
Formally, the announcement of the suspension of military aid may have come as a surprise to the public, but Ukraine's military and political leadership were aware of the threat in advance.
"Negative scenarios were assumed, although many analysts and politicians believed that Trump would not play so openly against the entire Western camp. Now we are seeing exactly this game, and it threatens not only assistance to Ukraine, but also the stability of NATO." (Valentyn Badrak)
"Last year, even when it was not known who would become the next US president, both Americans and Europeans began to prepare for the possible withdrawal of the United States from the role of the main coordinator of assistance to Ukraine." (Pavlo Lakiychuk)
To understand the scale of the problem, it is worth looking at the two key aid mechanisms through which the US has been transferring weapons.
US military support to Ukraine was provided through two main programmes:
"There are two programmes that provide assistance. One allows the US President to transfer weapons from US stockpiles, and the other uses the funds to purchase new weapons. It is much easier to suspend the Presidential Drawdown programme, as it is a purely political decision." (Glib Voloskyy)
Both programmes were critically important for Ukraine. The PDA provided a rapid supply of ammunition and equipment, while the USAI provided long-term rearmament.
Main risks for Ukraine
1. Ammunition and artillery
Ukraine depends on 155mm artillery shells, which provide firepower for the frontline. A shortage could affect the pace of offensive and defensive operations.
"We can expect a shortage of ammunition, including artillery shells, in the medium term. European production is growing, but so far, it is not able to fully replace US supplies." (Glib Voloskyy)
In addition, the halt in aid complicates the repair and modernisation of artillery systems, which also require spare parts.
"Ukraine already produces a significant part of the necessary ammunition, but it is still not enough. Dependence on foreign supplies remains high, and if US assistance does not resume, the issue of production rates will become critical." (Valentyn Badrak)
"Most European military developments have American components, and there is a risk that the US may block their exports to Ukraine, even if Europe is ready to transfer more weapons." (Pavlo Lakiychuk)
2. Air defence
One of the biggest threats is the lack of missiles for the Patriot and NASAMS systems, which are the basis for the protection of Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
"The biggest blow will be to air defence. NASAMS uses US missiles, and Patriot is completely dependent on the US. Without a constant supply of interceptors, the Ukrainian air defence system will be weakened."(Glib Voloskyy)
"The enemy attacks with missiles and drones every day, and the effectiveness of our air defence depends on the availability of interceptors. The United States was the main supplier of such missiles, and without their regular supply, the defence of critical facilities will become more difficult." (Pavlo Lakiychuk)
If Europe and other partners do not find a solution to replace US air defences, the risk of massive Russian missile attacks will increase.
3. Long-range weapons and HIMARS
Ukraine will not receive new ATACMS and HIMARS missiles, limiting the ability to strike at enemy rear positions.
"The problem is not only the lack of ATACMS. Ukraine may also face restrictions on the supply of European analogues, such as Storm Shadow/SCAPL as they contain the US components" (Glib Voloskyy)
"Ukraine is increasing the production of long-range drones, and this is a signal that the country is preparing for a long war. But so far, it is not a replacement for missile weapons." (Valentyn Badrak)
This will have an impact and significantly complicate the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive.
4. Disruptions to intelligence and communication
The United States provided critical satellite data, communications interception, and analysis of Russian movements.
All three experts emphasise that Ukraine heavily depends on US intelligence, including satellite imagery, radio intercepts and analysis of missile launches.
Pavlo Lakiychuk draws attention to the role of NATO and allies, which are already partially expanding their presence in the region (British Poseidon).
"Not only American reconnaissance aircraft, but also British Poseidons are now flying over the Black Sea. NATO is expanding its capabilities, so even if the US reduces its activity, there will be no complete data cut-off for Ukraine." (Pavlo Lakiychuk)
Glib Voloskyy and Valentyn Badrak emphasise that Europe is trying to find alternatives, but so far, its capabilities are much less than those of the US.
"For Ukraine, stopping the transmission of satellite and intelligence data means losing an important advantage in planning operations. Ukraine's dependence on Western military communications technology remains very high. We have our own developments, but their scale is not yet sufficient to replace foreign systems." (Valentyn Badrak)
Restricting the operation of Starlink, which is the main means of military communication at the front, is also a significant risk.
"Starlink has become a critical tool for military communications. Even if the US does not shut it down, administrative pressure or sanctions could create difficulties. Ukraine is already working on alternative communication systems, but they do not yet provide the same quality." (Glib Voloskyy)
"In the Kursk region of Russia, there is no Starlink at all, but Ukrainian troops have learnt to work without it. If access to Starlink is restricted in Ukraine, it will significantly complicate the coordination of battles." (Pavlo Lakiychuk)
European assistance, possible US pressure and alternative options
European countries have already stepped up their military support for Ukraine, including increasing the production of ammunition and air defence systems. However, Europe's real ability to fully replace the US is still limited due to the long production cycle and dependence on US technology.
"Europe demonstrates its determination to support Ukraine, but the speed of implementation of defence programmes remains an open question." (Valentyn Badrak)
Germany, France and the UK are expanding their defence production, but key components for many systems, including long-range missiles and air defence systems, are made in the US. This means that Washington has the ability to control exports and limit arms transfers to Ukraine.
"European countries are increasing the production of ammunition and air defence systems, but their capabilities are still limited."(Glib Voloskyy)
Europe's technological dependence on the United States creates risks that in the event of a change in the political situation, Washington could use pressure or an export ban to slow down or block the supply of certain types of weapons to Ukraine.
If the United States does not resume full-scale arms supplies, a possible alternative would be to finance purchases through other countries or transfer arms through NATO and EU mechanisms.
"If the United States is not willing to provide assistance anymore, Europe may try to purchase it from the US on behalf of Ukraine."(Glib Voloskyy)
"Europe is ready to partially take on the role of financing Ukraine's defence, but its resources are not unlimited. The question also remains: will Washington pressure its allies to limit the amount of such assistance?" (Valentyn Badrak)
At the same time, NATO is already considering new mechanisms for long-term support for Ukraine that could mitigate the consequences of the loss of US assistance.
An alternative option, which Ukraine could use in conjunction with others, is to expand its defence production.
Ukraine is already increasing its production of ammunition, drones and missiles, but full independence requires more time and investment. At the same time, the military-industrial complex operates under the constant threat of attacks, which makes it challenging to develop large-scale production lines.
Currently, the Ukrainian industry already produces long-range drones and certain types of artillery ammunition, but this is not enough to meet all the needs of the frontline.
Ukraine is not left without options, but none of the alternative scenarios fully compensate for the loss of US aid. Europe is strengthening its support, but its production capacity has not yet reached the required level. Other countries may become new suppliers, but their political interests and economic considerations will influence the speed of decision-making.
Thus, Ukraine's strategy should combine several solutions: maximising the use of European aid, diversifying suppliers, and increasing domestic production.
Following negotiations in Saudi Arabia, on March 11, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, as part of discussions with U.S. officials on security and humanitarian issues. The US committed to restoring intelligence sharing and resuming military aid, including deliveries under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). Ukraine's Office of the President confirmed the renewal of security assistance, following talks between high-level delegations in Jeddah. Additionally, Poland's Ministry of Defense reported that U.S. military shipments to Ukraine have resumed.
This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It’s content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
