As reported by Axios, last week, in Paris, the United States presented Ukrainian officials with a one-page document - a draft of the peace agreement. It does not provide for any obligations for Russia to end the war and not to start a new one, but it does set out a number of requirements for Ukraine, a country that did not initiate the war. This jeopardises not only justice but also the very possibility of sustainable peace.
What is being offered to Ukraine, and why it is unacceptable
The proposed plan provides for "mutual concessions" - in fact, the transfer of part of Ukrainian territories under Russian control. Among the conditions are:
Additionally, it is about establishing US control over theZaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is supposed to provide electricity to both Ukraine and Russia.
Why "peace" without guarantees is no peace at all
The key issue is that the plan contains no guarantees that Russia will not resume its invasion. Not a single clause prohibits a new war. And no accountability for the aggressor.
An agreement where the aggressor does not commit to ending the war forever, bears no responsibility for the invasion and does not lose the ability to attack again, is not peace, but only a pause until the next attack.
It allows recognising Russia's right to dictate borders and depriving Ukraine of real protection.
Violation of the principles of the Budapest Memorandum
In 1994, Ukraine voluntarily gave up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees. According to the Budapest Memorandum, signed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity were to be inviolable.
Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum when it annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
A threat not only to Ukraine
The current agreement, lacking guarantees to deter the aggressor, sets a precedent. If Russia is allowed to retake the seized territories without punishment, it will send a signal to other countries with a meaning that war works. It is enough to start an invasion, wait for the international community to get "tired", and you can keep a part of another state.
Any compromises without guarantees of deterring the aggressor are not diplomacy, but a slow capitulation. Recognising annexations, lifting sanctions and neutralising Ukraine is not a way to end the war.
True peace is the one that will not be repeated as a new war.
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This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It’s content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
