Ukraine is not only holding back Russian assaults, but also stopping them before they fully take shape. Moscow is betting that global attention shifting to the Middle East and prolonged negotiations will weaken support for Ukraine.
A shift in the world's attention carries real consequences: global crises are already feeding the Kremlin's resource base and without sustained support, Kyiv's battlefield gains may not hold.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have not only held defensive lines but also actively prevented a new wave of Russian attacks: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian troops have disrupted preparations for renewed Russian attacks and regained control of significant areas on the frontline.
Kyiv changes its approach to the war: rather than reacting to Russian advances, Ukrainian forces target logistics hubs, ammunition and command centres before Russian units can fully deploy.
Moscow continues to adapt its tactics, regroup its forces and prepare not for peace, but for prolonged war. Its strategy is no longer built around rapid breakthroughs, but around grinding pressure and the exhaustion of Ukraine over time. Despite Ukrainian successes in disrupting the spring offensive, Russia continues to prepare it anyway.
The escalation in the Middle East is already affecting the flow of Western attention and resources. President Zelensky warned that Russia could enter future negotiations on a "peace deal" with a position of greater strength and confidence due to these factors:
Though talks on the last point are ongoing, EU leaders stated the support package will be approved, but the consequences of this delay may still occur.
Even partial relief in sanctions policy gives Moscow more funds to spend on military spending and war production. As global crises grow, Ukraine risks falling down the international priority list, allowing Russia to reinforce its narrative that the world is moving on.
Russia's strategy is no longer centred on defeating Ukraine quickly. Instead, it is built around a far more patient calculation: that time and global instability will uproot Western resolve.
Moscow is also attempting to use global crises as leverage in its bargaining. According to POLITICO Russia proposed halting intelligence sharing with Iran in exchange for the United States stopping intelligence support to Ukraine, an offer Washington rejected.
In this sense, Russia is not only fighting Ukraine but testing the political endurance of the West. This is why global distractions matter so much: for the Kremlin, they are not incidental but an integral part of the strategy.
Ukrainian forces are proving that even a larger aggressor can be contained, slowed and strategically weakened. Ukraine not only defends its territory but also reduces the threat to Europe: each disrupted offensive, destroyed supply line and delayed Russian advance gives Western governments more time to stabilise support and refine their strategies.
In other words, Ukraine is no longer a passive recipient of aid but a key actor that shapes Europe's security environment.
However, Kyiv cannot and should not bear this burden alone. Resilience alone is not enough: without consistent military and political support, even the strongest defence risks gradually failing due to the resource inequality that still benefits Russia.
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This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It's content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
