Against All Odds: How Did Ukraine Fight in 2024

January 17, 2025
In 2024, Ukraine confronted military challenges, embraced technological breakthroughs, and executed strategic strikes, reshaping the dynamics of war.
article-photo

Valentyn Badrak, Military and Political Expert and Director of the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, speaks to UkraineWorld about how several internal and external factors have defined the dynamics of the past year of war.

PROBLEMATIC AND NEGATIVE ASPECTS

A political crisis in the United States, as well as a six-month halt in US military assistance, influenced the situation significantly. This delay resulted in a substantial shortage of weapons required to support Ukraine's offensive operations. It revealed the international support system's dependency on political crises in key countries. The prolonged absence of US military assistance for six months also affected the pace and reduced the determination of support from other countries, negatively impacting the course of the war.

Although, Ukraine's internal political agenda also brought significant problems i.e, mobilisation failures and weakness in its own defence industry caused by years of poor management.

Throughout the year, certain steps were taken to reform the mobilisation system. However, a recruitment system that would compensate for the current losses is still yet to be established. The shortcomings of the mobilisation management system impacted the effectiveness of both the rear and frontline.

This is not just the failure to mobilise Ukrainians; it also means the inability to put the entire economy on a war footing. The logistical and support systems in the rear lag significantly behind the military efforts, failing to adequately sustain the efficiency and effectiveness of operations.

Corruption remains one of Ukraine's vulnerabilities. The problem lies not only in the phenomenon itself but also in the impunity of many politicians and officials, creating negative sentiments in society, and thus splits it.

UKRAINE'S ACHIEVEMENTS

Despite the difficulties and new challenges, Ukraine has made significant progress.

Ukraine not only survived this extremely difficult year but also managed to conduct an asymmetric offensive in the Kursk region of Russia.

This operation demonstrated the weakness of Russia's military machine and the vulnerability of its regime. The Kursk operation shifted the fighting to the aggressor's territory, opening a new front and forcing Russia to redirect some of its resources to defend its own territory.

Ukraine's technological development has become another important achievement.

Unmanned systems, both airborne and ground-based, accounted for more than 50% of combat missions in offensive and mobile defence. At the same time, the use of ground-based robotic systems has increased significantly. This is an important trend aimed at saving the lives of infantry and shifting the focus to machines and away from humans.

Significant progress has been made in joint programmes with international partners. These include work with the Belgian branch of Thales on the production of interceptor missiles. Another is the development of CAMM-ER anti-aircraft missiles, which Ukraine is set to produce in collaboration with MBDA Italy and Italian companies such as Leonardo. If implemented, this project will significantly contribute to creating a modern missile defence system.

It is important to note that such projects are part of Ukraine's strategy to strengthen its defence capabilities and integrate into the international security community.

STRIKES DEEP INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY

One of the key elements of 2024 was the permission for Ukraine to strike up to 300 kilometres deep within the aggressor's territory.

Granting permission to strike deep into Russian territory allowed Ukraine to destroy elements of the enemy's defence and industrial potential more effectively. This made it possible to deliver a rather tangible blow to the Russian economy, which is increasingly suffering from sanctions, among other things.

Strikes on infrastructure, including oil refineries, have significantly weakened Russia's ability to finance the war.

Also, these strikes heightened tensions in Russian society, as the number of reports of the destruction of strategic facilities in Russia has increased.

PARTICIPATION OF THE NORTH KOREAN MILITARY

Ukrainian military analysis shows that using the North Korean military was ineffective, at least not as effective as was expected.

China has made it clear that it opposes active involvement of North Korean forces in the territory of Ukraine in order to prevent the war from escalating.

CRIMES AGAINST UKRAINIAN PRISONERS OF WAR

In 2024, there was a considerable increase in executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war, actively filmed and broadcasted by Russia. The main goal of these actions is to demonstrate the impunity of the Russian regime and to intimidate the Ukrainian military and society. This is a gross violation of international law that cannot go unpunished.

Such actions cause considerable outrage among the global community and should increase Russia's international isolation.

In 2024, the Russian-Ukrainian war reached a new level of complexity. The year was challenging for Ukraine, but it also demonstrated its ability to adapt. 

Ukraine resists aggression and finds creative and innovative approaches that strengthen its position. At the same time, addressing internal problems remains crucial for future success.

VALENTYN BADRAK, Military and Political Expert, Director of the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies

Interviewed by IRYNA KOVALENKO, Journalist at UkraineWorld