Don't Underestimate Ukraine

For decades, Ukraine has been framed as an object of global politics rather than a sovereign decision-maker. Some argue that its future depends on negotiations between great powers, ignoring the fact that Ukraine has consistently made its own decisions, even when they were against the expectations of Moscow and the West.

Let's look at defining moments that proved Ukraine's ability to determine its own path.

• 1991: Independence. Despite U.S. Warnings and George H.W. Bush's "Chicken Kyiv" speech urged Ukraine to stay in the Soviet Union, but Ukrainians still declared independence.

After the USSR collapsed, Ukraine sought independence and a break from imperial rule, while Russia, in contrast, longed to rebuild its empire.

• 2004: Orange Revolution.  Ukrainians rejected Russian-backed Yanukovych despite Kremlin influence. This was more than just an election --- it was a declaration that Ukraine's future would not be dictated by Moscow. A large part of the population not only wanted but were convinced that Ukraine would eventually become part of the EU.
• 2013-2014: Revolution of Dignity. Ukraine defied Russia's attempts to force it into its sphere of influence, choosing the European path. Despite pressure from both Moscow and, at times, Western hesitation, Ukrainians proved that their European path was a decision made by the Ukrainian people, not foreign powers.
• 2022: Russia's full-scale invasion. Despite predictions and Russians bragging about capturing Kyiv in three days, Ukraine has fought back and prevented Moscow from achieving its goals. The only major Ukrainian city Russia managed to capture was Kherson, however, it was liberated in November 2022. The war is ongoing, but Ukraine has already shattered the myth of Russia's unstoppable military power.

Today's war is not just about territory — it is an attempt to strip Ukraine of its independence and erase Ukraine's right to self-determination. Moscow cannot accept a Ukraine that makes its own choices, so it seeks to undermine its sovereignty through both military aggression and diplomatic manipulation.

 However, history proves that Ukrainians have the capacity to defy the will of major powers. They resisted Russia's dominance, rejected U.S. pressure to remain in the Soviet Union, and pushed for European integration even when the EU was reluctant.

Ukraine's present candidate status and accession negotiations are not the result of the EU's willingness but of Ukraine's determination to be part of Europe.

Despite Russia's attempts to erase it as an independent actor, Ukraine continues to fight for its right to determine its own future — and the world must recognise and support this, not diminish it.

Supporting Ukraine is not just about helping a country at war — it is about defending the fundamental right of nations to choose their own future.

This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It’s content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.