Ukraine, like many countries, waits anxiously for the US presidential elections in November. Kyiv is particularly interested in how the future US president, whoever that may be, sees the ending of the war and whether that plan is consistent with Ukrainian terms.
This article discusses President Donald Trump's foreign policy views and outlines major foreign policy issues addressed in Project 2025 regarding Ukraine and the potential end of the war with Russia.
Former U.S. President and current 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump has made several statements about the Ukraine-Russia war, particularly those that concern foreign policy and military aid.
One of the most notable being, "If I am President, I will settle that war in one day, 24 hours. I will meet with Putin and Zelenskyy, and that war will be settled." When asked whether he wanted Ukraine to win this war, Trump said he didn't think in terms of winning and losing. "I want to stop the killing of all these people," he claimed in 2023.
Later, Trump clarified: "I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to".
Moreover, Trump has expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, stating, "I found them very useful with Iran, but I didn't even need sanctions with Iran so much. I told China that, and Russia is in a similar position," he mentioned. For the sake of fairness, it would be worth mentioning that Trump also imposed sanctions on Russia between 2017 and 2021.
In addition, Trump said that he wanted Europe to pay a greater share of aid, particularly military aid to Ukraine.
Officially, it is a more than 900-page vision of how the US government should operate written from a conservative perspective by over 50 conservative organizations led by the Heritage Foundation.
In particular, Project 2025
, or the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, is the transition and long-term plan for conservatives to be put for executive positions if Trump wins the 2024 elections in the United States. Moreover, it's not only the vision itself. It includes a "personnel database for candidates to create profiles and for coalition members to give recommendations."
First, it's important to read Republican-oriented documents as a whole to make reasonable predictions on plausible policy proposals. Foreign policy doesn't reflect much of the proposed vision outlined in the document. However, it is arranged in line with Republican Party rhetoric, which sees China as the primary threat to the United States' global dominance.
Nevertheless, it also identifies Russia as a threat in connection with Iran and North Korea. Still, despite the alarming evidence of the Iran-Russia-North Korea alliance, it is not stated explicitly enough.
Regarding foreign policy wording and the potential impact of ideas, Project 2025 contains similar messages to what the Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Vice-Presidential nominee J.D. Vance claim about US foreign policy. In particular, this rhetoric for choice must be made regarding which adversary to confront first, China or Russia, and the inability to focus on withstanding both at any one given time. It is quite alarming for those in Ukraine to see the document place China as the top priority only, given the fact that China-Russia cooperation helps Putin finance the war efforts.
Given that the Plan proposes to deter one adversary, it is consistent with Trump's ongoing message that the United States cannot afford to help Ukraine. Given the number of weapons and ammunition the US currently provides to Ukraine for its defense, Kyiv needs to better prepare for the potential change in US-provided support. In his op-ed for the New York Times, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance explained that a Trump-Vance presidency would not vote for the aid package to Ukraine. Instead, the US should concentrate on China and prevent it from invading Taiwan.
Regarding a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war, Project 2025 aims for a swift end to the war through a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia. Trump offers this as one of his foreign policy promises, claiming that he would prevent World War III, hinting at the Russia-Ukraine war impact or potential nuclear fallout.
Overall, Ukraine's leadership is still curious about the details of Trump's plan to end the war, particularly the price Ukraine would have to pay for its execution. As of the summer of 2024, Trump and his team have not said anything about the potential pressure he will have against Putin.
Prior to the summer, Trump said he would halt aid to Ukraine if Kyiv didn't want a peace deal (with no further specifics), yet also pledged more concrete assistance to Ukraine if Russia didn't want to negotiate. A confusing track made yet more unclear as J.D. Vance says the US doesn't have enough production capabilities to assist Ukraine in the way Kyiv needs. Therefore, the notion that Trump's plan to press Russia for negotiations would work if Russia sabotages the agreement is without merit.
It's critical for Ukraine to deepen institutional cooperation with the United States, specifically through joint ammunition production. Ukraine is particularly interested in ammunition shells, air defense systems, and long-range missiles.
Furthermore, Ukraine would need to persuade its partners that it is of crucial need to continue supporting Ukraine with weapons, especially as it is expected that Russia will attempt to, once again, destroy Ukraine's power grid in wintertime. Beyond that, Ukraine would like to see more and stronger targeted sanctions against those who help Russia finance its war efforts.
