The Alaska meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia is being closely watched worldwide. While presented as a potential step towards peace, the meeting is, in reality, a test of the unity of those who support international law and one more strategic manoeuvre by Moscow.
Behind the diplomatic optics, the real question remains: what game does the Kremlin play and what does it mean for Ukraine and its allies?
First, Alaska offers a politically safe option for Vladimir Putin. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and therefore has no legal obligation to enforce an arrest warrant.
It matters as on March 17, 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court issued warrants of arrest for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova.
Second, geography works in Putin's favour: Alaska is just a few hours' flight from Russia's Far East across the Bering Strait.
Third, there is also a symbolic meaning.In 1867, the USA purchased Alaska from the Russian Empire for $7.2 million.
At that moment, Russia decided to sell Alaska, as the territory had little development potential, was costly to maintain and impossible to defend in case of war, while closer ties with the U.S. were seen as beneficial.
In nowadays Russia, the sale of Alaska remains a subject for debate. Some still call it a disgrace, others a pragmatic decision to relinquish unviable colonies. However, it is often the subject of speculation that "Alaska is still ours" or "could be ours again." Such narratives are tied directly to imperial ambitions and open bragging about reclaiming former territories.
Rumours and unofficial scenarios are circulating, suggesting that "peace" could involve Ukraine agreeing to territorial exchanges or recognising the occupied territories as Russian. Some proposals include transferring at least Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
Here's what this really means and why Ukraine and its allies cannot agree to such terms:
These are where fortifications, built and reinforced over many years, protect key cities in eastern and central Ukraine from direct attack.Losing these positions would expose vast areas and make it far easier for Russia to prepare a new offensive.
Any changes to the nation's borders can only be made through constitutional amendments, which require both a parliamentary vote and public approval.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Moscow's main goal at the upcoming meeting is not to seek a genuine end to the war, but to divide the United States and Europe.
Russia also aims to portray Ukraine and Europe, not Russia, as obstacles to peace and tries to persuade President Trump to view President Zelenskyy as the main cause of the war and European leaders as the secondary cause.
For the Kremlin, any territorial gain, no matter how small, carries first and foremost domestic political significance.It can be presented to the Russian population as a "victory", the "protection of Russian-speaking residents" or the "fulfilment of a historic mission". In this logic, actual strategic advantages matter less than the ability to create an image of success for the internal audience.
The upcoming Alaska meeting will be a test not just for Kyiv, but for the unity of the West. If the U.S. shows an inconsistent position, Europe may have to step up as the main defender of international law. For Ukraine's allies, supporting Kyiv is about more than solidarity, it's about their own security, because the same threat could reach any of them in the future.
On August 12, EU leaders made it clear by issuing the European Union Leaders' Statement on Ukraine, emphasising that a just peace must respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and cannot be decided without Ukraine's consent. The EU will continue supporting Ukraine politically, economically, militarily and diplomatically, while maintaining sanctions against Russia.
In March 2025, Ukraine supported a US ceasefire initiative aimed at creating a path to end the war that lasts since 2014. But Russia chose a different path. Instead, it resumed terror tactics, attacking civilians and infrastructure (including energy facilities) and launched offensives at the front, especially "meat-grinder" tactics.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine confirms that in the first five months of 2025, the number of civilian casualties is 50% higher than in the same period in 2024.
Also, the number of civilian casualties continued to increase in July, establishing a new record for total monthly casualties since May 2022. In July 2025, there was a 22.5 per cent increase in civilians who were killed or injured compared to July 2024.
Recognising an aggressor's claim to the territories it doesn't even fully occupy sets a precedent.
It effectively provides a "step-by-step manual" for other dictators:
1. seize a part of another country,
2. include it in your constitution,
3. target civilians with everyday attacks
4. and then, voilà, use negotiations to demand recognition of these territories in exchange for a promise of "peace."
This creates a certain and real risk: authoritarian leaders elsewhere might see that territorial conquest can be legitimised through internal legislation, undermining the principles of international law and the global norms that protect state sovereignty.
The Alaska summit is not an opportunity for Putin and Trump to "negotiate peace", but a test for the world: will the rules protecting states from aggression remain steady or can they be rewritten in favour of the stronger?
Even if it is not currently possible for Ukraine to physically reclaim all occupied territories, they cannot be legally recognised as Russian. Any concessions to Moscow would set a dangerous precedent, legitimising territorial conquest and encouraging other authoritarian regimes.
True peace is about a complete ceasefire. True stability depends on full respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, unwavering support from its allies and a rejection of any attempt to reward aggression.
We encourage you to discover more:
Why Trump's Ukraine plan won't work podcast by Volodymyr Yermolenko with Tetyana Ogarkova
Frozen Conflict Is Not Peace - Just a Trap
What Exactly Does Russia Want to Annex from Ukraine?
When a Peace Agreement Rewards the Aggressor, Justice Dies
Why Putin Won't Talk: He Wants Surrender, Not Peace
While Talking Peace, Russia Escalates
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This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It's content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
