On February 18, President Zelenskyy stated that the next round of negotiations on ending Russia's war against Ukraine will take place in Switzerland.
Ukraine has repeatedly stated its readiness for a just peace and supports the efforts of the world leaders to end the war in a diplomatic way.
However, diplomacy cannot become a mechanism that favours the aggressor. So, the crucial question remains: can a peace deal end the war without undermining the international order or creating a roadmap for future aggression?
Russia suffers staggering losses on the battlefield by launching offensives on the front line (often described as meat-grinder tactics) and fails to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine (the most famous being "taking Kyiv in three days"). Moscow is now trying to turn the negotiating table into a terrain where it might salvage more than it won in combat and lost economically.
In 2022, Russia declared four Ukrainian Oblasts annexed and added them to its constitution. In reality, it never fully controlled them.
Even today, parts of these territories remain under Ukrainian authority and some areas that Russia once occupied have been liberated. However, Moscow demands that Ukraine give up these territories, trying to use legal fiction to achieve what it failed to win on the battlefield. (What Exactly Does Russia Want to Annex from Ukraine?)
The other issue is the military budget: Russia has committed immense resources to its war effort, and even its 2026 federal budget is explicitly structured for prolonged war rather than peace, with almost 40% of all federal spending devoted to defence and security. However, more than 80% of defence spending could be classified, which means the real cost of the war is likely far higher. (Russia's 2026 Budget: Built for War, Not Peace)
Diplomacy and negotiation talks often, if not always, happen in parallel with massive strikes on civilian infrastructure(energy system's objects being a constant target). (Putin Is Asked Not to Strike. Why Ukraine Prepares Anyway)
This way, the Kremlin appears to be leveraging talks to push for sanctions relief, de facto recognition of its annexations and a return to "business as it was before".
Granting amnesty and lifting sanctions despite invasion and full-scale war is not an example the world needs.
The prohibition of aggression, the Geneva Conventions and the entire post-World War II legal order rest on a simple principle: crimes of this magnitude cannot be tolerated.
Without real consequences, Russia will rearm, regroup and invade again.
Unfortunately, this is no longer only about Ukraine - it could happen anywhere. Such a roadmap would send a clear message: invade a neighbour, avoid sanctions, prolong the war, terrorise civilians, exhaust your opponent and eventually secure through negotiations what could not be secured militarily.
If aggression is normalised and justice is undermined, the next war is no longer a question of if, but for Ukraine - when, and for the whole world - where.
This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It's content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.
